On March 24-25 president Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov paid a long-awaited visit to Turkey. Western politicians and analysts had great hopes for the visit, expecting important declarations on the Trans-Caspian pipeline. The expectations were further fuelled by the statement Berdymukhammedov made right before his departure to Ankara: president reminded that Ashgabat’s objective is to diversify its gas export routes.

However, the results of the talks with the Turkish president Abdullah Gül were rather disappointing.

Turkmenistan president’s visit to Turkey, completed on March 25, hasn’t even brought a verbal promise that the Turkmen gas will be exported to Europe via Turkey. […] Even though the final communiqué did mention energy cooperation, the gas issue could not be found in any of the documents. Moreover, Berdymukhammedov remained deaf to the Turkish president’s emotional statement that Ankara is ready to contribute to the transportation of Turkmen gas to European markets.

During the press conference the Turkmen leader only expressed his satisfaction with the talks held, and stated that his visit is yet another proof of the Turkish and Turkmen friendship. He also encouraged Turkish businessmen to invest in Turkmenistan. In Istanbul he held a meeting with Turkmen students who study in Turkey.

Why did Berdymukhammedov miss yet another chance to explicitly declare that Turkmenistan was going to participate in the Trans-Caspian pipeline? In his article published on Eurasianet.org Nicolas Birch claims that:

For coldly calculating analysts […] the Turkmen leader was simply sticking to his geopolitical script, trying to string out the main players in the Caspian Basin energy game in order to secure maximum advantage for his regime. The speculation surrounding his future intentions no doubt has helped Turkmenistan obtain large economic concessions from the Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom.

However, this makes me think that the true reason for Berdymukhammedov’s silence should be sought elsewhere. It cannot be ruled out that the main (albeit unpublicized) subject of the talks was the pipeline from Turkmenistan to Turkey that would cross Iran, not the Caspian Sea. It’s been some time now that the Turks have tried to tighten their gas cooperation with Iran. During his visit to Ashgabat last year, Gül was lobbying the “Iranian route” of the pipeline. However, the main obstacle is the Americans’ position - they decidedly oppose to Tehran’s involvement in any economic cooperation in the region. Should the Trans-Iranian gas pipeline be the subject of talks in Ankara, it seems perfectly reasonable that the issue did not get much publicity. Time will show whether there was something to it.