Two weeks have passed since the suspension of Turkmen gas supplies to Iran. The pipelines are still empty and both sides are stiffening their position. Ashgabat obstinately claims that the suspension is due to maintenance works (but who conducts such works during the harshest winter in decades?) and at the same time warns that supplies will not be restored unless the Iranians pay off the debt they allegedly owe Turkmenistan.

Tehran’s position is quite different, as described by Bruce Pannier from the Radio Free Europe:

Iranian officials have now made it clear that the issue clearly involves price. Iranian Oil and Gas Minister Gholamhossein Nozari recently said that talks on raising the price for Turkmen natural gas, from the current $75 to $140 per 1,000 cubic meters, would resume only when the supplies were restored. Nozari added that if deliveries did not resume, Iran could refuse to buy Turkmen gas.

Only the highest officials in Ashgabat probably know the true reason of the crisis. Nevertheless, the commentators have already come up with various theories and written about the activity of Washington, which has supposedly been trying to exert pressure on Berdymukhammedov to take hostile measures against Tehran, as well as about the rights of the Turkmen minority living in northern Iran being violated by the Iranian authorities and the backstairs activity of Russia aimed against… Turkey, etc.

It seems, however, that there is no hidden agenda here. The two reasons that most likely lie behind the suspended gas supplies are: shortage of gas in Turkmenistan (I have written about it in one of my recent posts) and Ashgabat’s growing assertiveness encouraged by the recent success in its negotiations with the Gazprom which ended up in a 30-percent price rise on gas sold to Russia.

There is one more interesting aspect to this issue that has probably not been raised yet. Interestingly enough, the parties to the conflict (especially Turkmenistan) communicate with each other not only through diplomatic channels but also by public announcements in the media. However, I would not attribute it to their openness or concern to keep the public informed. This rather indicates that the conflict is indeed severe and, thus, unlikely to end soon.