When dealing with Turkmenistan one inevitably has to write about gas which is the key issue in that country. It seemed that the signing of the deal on the Caspian coastal gas pipeline construction would allow me to tackle other issues (let the post about the Turkmen women be the proof of my best intentions). Unfortunately, this turned out impossible, as new “gas” news broke out even before the end of the past year.

To be more specific: on 27 December, President Berdymukhammedov informed that in 2008 Turkmenistan will conduct an audit of all hydrocarbon deposits which is to be coordinated by Deputy Prime Minister Tachberdy Tagiyev.

Certifying oil and gas supplies in the country’s fields will allow us to clarify our strategy for further developing the use of our hydrocarbon resources and account for the high goals set in the programme of development of Turkmenistan’s oil and gas industry through 2030 that would promote the development of the mutually beneficial international cooperation in the energy sector,” the president of Turkmenistan said at the meeting.

In other words, Ashgabat must at least partially disclose how much gas it really has in order to become a reliable partner for the West. Turkmenistan could, of course, continue to promise gas supplies to everybody, but this might discourage its potential clients. In this situation, an audit of gas deposits is a must for Turkmenistan. But it is doubtful that the foreign partners should trust the Turkmen experts. The government would have to consent to an international audit of Turkmen deposits, which seems unlikely at the moment.

Another gas news is that the Turkmen gas supplies to Iran were withheld on 29 December. The Turkmen authorities acknowledged that the gas was not flowing indeed due to technical problems. However, it is possible that this was the way Ashgabat responded to the fact that no compromise was reached as to the price of gas it sold to Iran (currently Tehran pays 100 US dollars per 1000 cubic metres; the Turkmen want to raise the price). As a consequence of the suspension of gas supplies, Iranian gas exports to Turkey were seriously reduced (according to some sources they were completely suspended).

If the reason for gas supplies suspention was indeed the fact that the two countries were unable to reach a compromise as to the price, the whole situation may only mean one thing: Berdymukhammedov’s appetite is growing. Several weeks ago he managed to negotiate gas price increase with Russia from 100 to 130 USD in the first and to 150 in the second half of 2008. Why should the Iranians pay less?

There may also be another explanation of the suspension of gas supplies to Iran, i.e. insufficient amount of gas in Turkmenistan which is especially acute in winter. The problem was mentioned by the Deutsche Welle and confirmed by the Radio Free Europe in a recently published article on Turkmenistan whose author writes about the gas shortage in the Turkmen internal market.

If this turned out to be true, Turkmenistan would be in serious trouble. This could undermine the whole policy of diversification of gas exports implemented by Berdymukhammedov. The Russians would be the only winner. There would certainly be enough gas for them.