The end of the past year was marked by an important event in Moscow which has slipped our attention because of the forthcoming Christmas and New Year. However, it is worth reminding about. On 20 December 2007, President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbaev, paid a visit to the Russian capital. As a result of the talks that he held with Vladimir Putin a trilateral agreement was signed between Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on cooperation in the construction of the Caspian Coastal gas pipeline (from Turkmenistan through Kazakhstan to Russia) which is expected to increase annual exports of Turkmen gas to Russia to 70 billion cubic metres. The deal had been awaited for many months with the initial agreement signed back in May 2007 and the binding deal supposed to have been ready by 1 September. However, this deadline was not met because of a disagreement between Moscow and Ashgabat as to the price of the Turkmen gas.

The mass media, especially in Russia, triumphantly hailed signing of the agreement as a success of the Russian energy policy in Central Asia. But is it really so? I dare doubt it, as there are many more questions and doubts than actual facts. Lets look at some of them.

First, why has Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov not come to Moscow as had earlier been announced? He only talked to Putin and Nazarbaev on the phone. Second, why wasn’t the agreement signed by prime ministers, but just by ministers: Viktor Khristenko, Russia’s Minister of Industry and Energy, Galym Orazbakov, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry and Trade and the executive director of Turkmenistan’s State Agency for the Management and Use of Hydrocarbon Resources Bairammyrat Myradov (as Alexey Grivach the author of an article published in the Vremya Novostey daily points out)? Third, why did the President of Kazakhstan not mention a word about the agreement during his press conference while Vladimir Putin stressed its great significance?

Interesting is also the statement by Viktor Khristenko, who said that …

…all decisions related to the project will be made by the end of 2008, and the gas pipeline will be opened by the end of 2010.

This means nothing more than that not all controversial issues were resolved and that detailed negotiations will be continued.

It is also not clear if Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan will be able to supply resources for the gas pipeline. According to the agreement, both countries are supposed to supply up to 10 billion cubic metres of gas. But according to the author of the above mentioned article from the Vremya Novostey it will not be possible due to technical issues.

By the way, what does “up to” mean? It may be 9.9 billion cubic metres, but “up to” may also mean 1 or 2 billion.

Thus, it seems that there was no real breakthrough in the talks on the gas pipeline construction, although Moscow is eager to create such an impression. Everything indicates that what was signed was in fact another memorandum on cooperation to sum up the current talks rather than a binding agreement on the construction of the gas pipeline. The game for the Turkmen gas goes on and it is difficult to tell what is going to happen in 2008.