Gazprom’s CEO Alexey Miller, following his visit to Ashgabat with Russian PM Victor Zubkov, announced on 27 November that Russia had agreed to pay more for Turkmen gas. So far, Russians have paid $ 100 for 1,000 m3 of gas. However, starting with 1 January 2008, the price will amount to $ 130, and in the second half of the year it will make $ 150.

The rise in gas prices is bad news for Ukraine: so far, Russia has been selling Kiev mainly gas re-exported from Turkmenistan. Moscow has already warned Ukraine it would raise the price next year. For Turkmenistan, the rise means more than just additional means in the budget. It also proves that President Berdymukhammedov’s energy policy – first of all, his declarations of cooperation with the West and support for the construction of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline – starts bringing results. Russia’s consent to the rise of gas prices proves that Moscow is forced to respect Ashgabat’s interests more than it did in Turkmenbashy times. Alexey Miller’s statement proves it best:

“Turkmenistani colleagues informed us about their international contacts in recent months with representatives of the European Commission and the United States, who consistently pushed the thesis that Turkmenistani gas price in the current export contracts was very low with a background of the current European prices and it should be higher,” Miller said in a Gazprom statement.

It shouldn’t be forgotten, however, that the Russians have also some cause for satisfaction after the talks in Ashgabat. The Tukmen side has agreed to sign the final deal concerning the construction of a Caspian Coastal Pipeline (from Turkmenistan to Russia) that will allow for a significant increase of Turkmen gas export to Russia (by 10 billion m3 in 2009 and by 30 billion m3 in 2015). This deal was supposed to be signed in September, the only obstacle being Ashgabat’s condition: the gas price should be raised.

Even though the Russians have benefited the talks, it’s the Turkmen success that seems indisputable. From merely a pawn in the great empires’ game, Turkmenistan is slowly turning into an independent player. Obviously, Turkmenistan is unable to dictate its terms to stronger partners; still, thanks to its ingenious devices, it forces them to make concessions.

It’s worth reminding that it’s been already the second measurable success of Berdymukhammedov’s energy policy, the first being the gas deal with China and the start of Turkmenistan-China pipeline construction (August 2007) of expected capacity of 30 billion m3 a year.