On 12 May, when presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan gathered in the port of Turkmenbashi (formerly Krasnovodsk) to sign a joint declaration on the construction of the gas pipeline along the Caspian Sea coast (from Turkmenistan via Kazakhstan to Russia), it seemed that the future of the Turkmen gas had been determined: it was to be pumped mainly to Russia. Many commentators, especially from Russia, wrote off alternative gas pipeline projects, announcing President Putin’s victory and the return of Turkmenistan under Russia’s wing.

However, recent developments show that those forecasts may have been premature. Let me analyse two incidents.

Last Monday (18 June), during his traditional meeting with the government, President Vladimir Putin asked vice-premier Sergey Naryshkin (who along with the Turkmen Minister of Foreign Affairs Rashid Meredov presides over the Russian-Turkmen intergovernmental committee) to check on the status of Moscow’s relations with Ashgabat:

“I would like you to see what has been done in Turkmenistan since my last meeting with the President – Putin explained. – Every meeting held at such a high level should bring us forward, we need to identify problems which prevent us from moving on and eliminate them”.

Naryshkin was supposed to do this during his visit to Ashgabat scheduled to take place on 22 June, when the intergovernmental committee was to hold its next session. However, one day later, Vladimir Vladimirovich faced an unpleasant surprise which must have painfully wounded his pride. The MFA of Turkmenistan informed the Russian party that the committee session and Naryshkin’s visit were cancelled. Ashgabat asked the Russian vice-premier to “prepare more precisely the documents which are to be discussed”.

This is doubtfully the true reason why the visit was cancelled. It seems more likely that Berdymukhammedov wanted to send Moscow a subtle message: we want to cooperate, but on our terms. It is you who should be seeking cooperation with us, not vice versa”.

Several days later (on 25 June), the Deputy Assistant to the U.S. Secretary of State Evan Feigenbaum, who seems to be one of the main people in Washington responsible for Turkmen issues, arrived in Turkmenistan. Like on his previous visits, he praised the new president for the alleged democratic reforms and for breaking with the isolation of Turkmenistan on the international arena. However, what Feigenbaum said is of much less importance than Berdymukhammedov’s declaration in which he for the first time expressed such an explicit support for the project of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline construction (from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan) advocated by Washington.

“Turkmenistan, which possesses huge carbohydrate resources, favours the principle of diversification of transmission of energy resources, and perceives the project of Trans-Caspian gas pipeline as one of possible routes”.

Certainly, this does not mean that Berdymukhammedov has already made a decision to engage into the gas pipeline construction, but it once again proves that the Great Game for the control over Central Asia’s resources still goes on, and that its result – despite Russia’s clear advantage – has not yet been determined.

Astute manoeuvres of the new Turkmen leader also show that he is a smart politician (or that he has good advisors) who can still surprise us…