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Pipe Dreams

Posted by Peter | in Economic Developments, International Affairs | on March 29th, 2006
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The recurrent idea of building a Trans-Caspian pipeline has been raised again, this time by Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Natiq Aliev, according to an Associated Press article. As on former occasions, the proposition was framed in a belief in the necessity to defy Russia’s current near-monopoly on exports of Central Asian gas. The project would ultimately offer a more direct route into the European market for Turkmen gas. As Aliev said:

“Europe has understood that it is naive to place all its hopes on Russian gas … The events of the last months, when Russia effectively declared its status as a monopolist, indicates that prices will rise further.”

Azerbaijan’s interest in exploring ways to import Turkmen gas has almost certainly been provoked by Russia’s decision earlier this year to raise the prices of gas deliveries to the Caucasian state. In spite of Azeri interest in the pipeline, however, Aliev was careful to stress that financing for the project would be Turkmenistan’s responsibility.
The idea does have some vintage and was originally backed with most vigour by the United States and Turkey in the late nineties. During his visit to Ashgabat this January, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza called for Turkmenistan to seek ways of diversifying its outlets for gas delivery. It is still tacit U.S. foreign policy that energy interests in Central Asia should be developed and the Trans-Caspian would fit neatly into an increasingly aggressive anti-Russian stance. Though there is very little likelihood that the idea will go beyond the planning stages in the near future, support for the proposal, from Baku to Washington, speaks volumes about the geo-political positioning of all the interested parties.

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