A fascinating opinion article by Rafis Abazov, author of the Historical Dictionary of Turkmenistan, was posted exclusively on the site of Karakum, a Turkmen blogger. What follows is the English language version of the text that appeared here:

TURKMENISTAN’S NEXT CHALLENGE

I was asked to write a short commentary about challenges that Turkmenistan might face in the future. It is an uneasy task for a person who has just completed a book on Turkmenistan from a comfortable chair at a university in New York. Yet, this position gives a serious advantage, as the author can compare the world where he lives with the world that he visits.
If I was asked to describe in one word the essence of the main challenge of Turkmenistan of tomorrow – the word would be globalization. Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner in economics,
defined globalization as “the creation of new institutions that have joined with existing ones to work across borders.” In other words, it implies that forces of globalization would be able to penetrate any borders or iron curtains. Practically every society in this world would face a number of challenges in this rapidly changing and internationalizing era, and Turkmenistan and other Central Asian republics are not an exception. What complicates the case for Turkmenistan is that after 15 years of independence the country is still in a search of a sustainable model of political and economic development.
I would argue, however, that in spite of all political and economic dimensions of the effects of globalization on Turkmenistani economy, the country will be more profoundly affected in the areas of social and intellectual life. My point of view can be fiercely debated by some, but we cannot deny a fact that the country cannot isolate itself from the rapidly changing world; and it will have to open up to this world sooner or later. When this happens in Turkmenistan, it will have to manage the need of integrating itself into the world community in order to tap the benefits of the technological era. It will also have to solve several fundamental
problems.
First, the country would be in need of highly educated young people, who acquired skills to manage the increasingly sophisticated institutional, business, trade and other relations as well as to maneuver the complex web of financial, commercial and managerial decisions and business deals.
Second, Turkmenistan would need to adapt its cultural environment to the globalized world. A modern post-industrial society highly values and rewards its members not for their seniority, rank, tribal links or social status, but for being innovative, risk-taking and for thinking out of box. In addition it provides moral and social support for those who push bars ever higher and it accepts the fact that mistakes might happen and, therefore, every individual should be given a second chance.
Third, it would need a high level of social integrity to sustain all social and cultural problems that globalization would inevitably bring in. In a contemporary society various forms of free non-governmental associations – neighborhood communities, clubs, alumni groups, interest groups and others provide individuals with various forms of support and expertise to navigate the complex web of social and professional experiences. In addition, they help people to stay, live and work together regardless of ethnic, tribal, language or communal background.
Fourth, it would need a very high level of competitiveness, as Turkmenistani individuals, groups, companies, firms, and corporations would be forced to compete in the domestic and international markets against all kinds of international competitors. This would require a large pool of talents, top-notch experts and a very affluent class of professionals who can build up
a critical mass of managerial, intellectual and technological know-how to conduct businesses.
In sum, these are the main challenges that Turkmenistan would face within next decade or two; the challenges – that are complicated by various domestic and international factors. The stakes are very high indeed. There are plenty of examples among countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America that show that even countries rich in natural resources might be inadequately prepared to challenges of globalization and they might be increasingly marginalized or even become failed states. I think it is time to think about these and probably other challenges and to consider how to face them.

Rafis Abazov