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Round-Up

Posted by Peter | in Economic Developments, International Affairs, Domestic Politics and Events | on January 31st, 2006
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Just a quick round-up of noteworthy mentions of Turkmenistan in various media:

Dennis de Tray, the World Bank’s Director for Central Asia, comes to the end of his term at the end of January. De Tray managed the Central Asia Program from the World Bank’s Regional Office in Almaty since October 2001. In a final interview he shared some insights on prospects for the region. On Turkmenistan he said:

“In Turkmenistan, where there is no lending program, the focus was on engaging the Turkmen Government in a more active policy dialogue and extending support to Turkmen civil society organizations. Successful implementation of the World Bank Small Grants Program and the Country Innovation Day in Turkmenistan signalled the Bank’s commitment to stay engaged with the country and help its people.”

In an analysis piece for RFE/RL, Daniel Kimmage writes about Russia increasing dependency on Central Asian gas, an issue often raised on this page. The article is an exhaustive rundown on energy issues confronting Turkmenistan, which are increasingly, as Kimmage argues, acquiring a political hue. This was particularly evident at the recent Moscow summit, which signalled closer than ever cooperation between Turkmenistan and Russia. After going through the assorted vagaries of the on-off triangular gas deals between Ashgabat, Kiev and Moscow, Kimmage raises the issue of alternative interested parties. Notably, a Chinese delegation headed by Zhang Guobao, deputy Minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, visited Turkmenistan before the Moscow visit to explore the potential for the construction of a gas pipeline to China. However, Kimmage also notes the often remarked limitations that will eventually come to visit Turkmen gas deals:

When Platts Oilgram News queried Christof Van Agt, the International Energy Agency’s Central Asia administrator, on 4 January about President Niyazov’s ambitious plans, Van Agt replied:
“If Turkmenistan is to meet Chinese and South Asian aspirations of 30 billion cubic metres per year apiece, while maintaining historic Ukrainian and Russian deliveries, production will have to double to around 130 to 140 billion cubic metres per year, or roughly 50 percent above pre-independence capacity of 90 billion cubic metres per year.”

However, as Kimmage observes, the dependence of Central Asian states on strategic alliances with Russia, formalised by these kinds of energy deals, may ultimately come to hinder Moscow. Both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are led by ageing leaders, whose tenures are unlikely to outlast short to mid-term commercial deals.
Another analysis piece on the gas question can be found at Regnum.

Finally, Niyazov conducted a telephone exchange with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad on Monday. During the conversation they agreed for Iranian Foreign Minister to visit Turkmenistan in the near future to discuss bilateral energy issues. In a point that seems at odds with news from Deutsche Welle about gas rationing within Turkmenistan, the prospective talks are being arranged to address the issue of possible exports to Iran:

Some regions of Iran are feeling an energy crunch and because of recent production hiccups, Iran has had to reduce the volumes that it is supplying to Turkey.
Despite the fact that Iran has delayed the price talks for more than a month and a half, Turkmenistan has continued supply regular volumes to Iran.

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