Not content with demanding alleged unpaid debts payments from Ukraine, the Turkmens have really stuck their neck out by calling on Russia to honour old dues to the order of $108 million. Unlike the Ukrainian debt the money owed in this instance dated back to funds deposited at Vneshekonombank in 1993, according to comments made on Tuesday by President Saparmurat Niyazov during an international railway conference.
The diplomatic crunch may well be exacerbated by news of Turkmen plans to seal a major deal to supply gas to China in 2006. There is no gas pipeline yet in place, so the plan is for one to be built with a capacity to transit 30 billion cubic metres of Turkmen gas per year. According to an Associated Press report:

In July, Turkmenistan and China signed an agreement on oil and gas cooperation and China extended a $24 million low-interest loan to Turkmenistan for the development of its oil and gas industry.
Wednesday’s announcement comes days after Niyazov warned Russia and Ukraine that Turkmenistan can do without their markets if they do not agree to pay more for gas supplies. The country, citing increased production costs and higher costs of gas extraction equipment, is seeking to boost its prices for natural gas exports by about 35 percent.
Ukraine relies on Turkmenistan for about 45 percent of its natural gas needs, and was planning to buy about 39 billion cubic meters in 2006. Russia was expected to buy about 7 billion cubic meters and Iran 8 billion.

The lack of a necessary pipeline may be the least of Turkmenistan’s, as there has been continued speculation over the real volume of the nation’s gas reserves. IWPR referred to it in passing on their latest article on the issue of Turkmen gas diplomacy. Particular scepticism has directed towards claims of the abundance of reserves at the Dauletabad field, the fourth largest in the world according to Turkmen authorities. Indeed, doubts over this data has prompted occasional items of refutal in pro-government media sources (here and here). If that doesn’t worry the Turkmen energy authorities, this sort of news might well do.
On top of all this, there is also the long-standing proposals for the building of the Trans-Afghan pipeline (TAP), which would also involve significant Indian and Pakistani investment. The 1,600-kilometre-long pipeline would have a capacity of between 20 billion cubic metres and 30 billion cubic metres. Again, when one reads of reports of how and when this is proceeding, there is a distinct impression that everybody is proceeding in the assumption that it will be their requirements that are met.
To sum up, a very rough estimate of Turkmen gas exports at the end of the decade is of 135 billion cubic meters. Of this 70 billion cubic meters per year will be going to Russia, around 39 million cubic meters to Ukraine, 8-9 billion cubic metres to Iran, 20-30 billion to an assortment of countries including Pakistan and India, and an unspecified amount to China. It doesn’t take a mathematical genius to work out the sums, and it doesn’t take a master of diplomacy to interpret the gist of Niyazov’s intemperate bid to pit rival gas consumers against one another.
One can only speculate, but it seems likely that Niyazov has been rattled by Russian manoeuvring on the Ukraine front. Kiev is no longer at his behest, but at Moscow’s. Meanwhile, prospective partners in the east are still virgin territory for Turkmen machinations, though the Indians in particular have sounded some wary notes in their enthusiasm for the TAP project.
The next chapter will be to see how (a) Russia reacts to the repayment of debts, (b) Russia’s reaction to the Chinese deal, (c) how Ukraine can dig itself out of its gas predicament.

UPDATE: Data on gas reserves on the official Turkmen government website.